# Justin Drake Raises Q-Day Odds

*Drake raised his odds of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer to 10% by 2030 and 50% by 2032.*

By [ETH Daily](https://ethdaily.io) · 2026-06-02

justin-drake, quantum, post-quantum, ethereum-foundation, leanvm, cryptography, security

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Justin Drake, a co-author of Google's landmark quantum paper from March 2026, [increased](https://x.com/drakefjustin/status/2061793725299224676) his odds of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, one capable of breaking real encryption keys, to 10% by 2030 and 50% by 2032. Drake said [the Ethereum Foundation's](https://ethdaily.io/868) target date for post-quantum migration is 2029, based on hash-based cryptography and leanVM.

The updated timeline comes amid accelerating progress. French researcher André Schrottenloher independently rediscovered Google's key optimization, and a crowdsourced challenge at ecdsa.fail has already achieved an 8.4% improvement over Google's original circuit, with AI-assisted autoresearch making further progress. Two $1 million initiatives are also currently open to outside contributors: the Proximity Prize and the Poseidon Initiative.

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*Originally published on [ETH Daily](https://ethdaily.io/justin-drake-raises-q-day-odds)*